Race Time Predictor

Predict your time for a target distance based on a known race result — using the Riegel formula.

How to use

  1. Enter a race distance you have run recently and your time.
  2. Enter the target distance you want to predict.
  3. The predicted time and pace appear — based on the Riegel formula.

About this tool

The Riegel formula predicts race times by scaling a known result: T₂ = T₁ × (D₂/D₁)^1.06. The exponent 1.06 accounts for the fact that pace slows as distance increases — you cannot simply double your 5K time to get your 10K time.

The formula works best for distances between 1,500 m and marathon, and for runners who have trained appropriately for both distances. It underestimates ultra-marathon times and overestimates sprint times.

Practical use: if you ran 5K in 25:00, the formula predicts 10K in 51:50 and a half marathon in 1:55. These are not guarantees — they assume equal training, weather and course conditions.

The formula

T₂ = T₁ × (D₂/D₁)^1.06 (Riegel, 1977).

Frequently asked questions

How accurate is this?

Within 2-3% for trained runners over standard distances. It is less accurate for untrained runners or distances outside 1.5-42 km.

Why is the exponent 1.06?

It reflects the metabolic cost of endurance: longer distances require more aerobic efficiency and slow the pace. Peter Riegel derived it from world record data.

Can I predict an ultramarathon?

The formula underestimates ultra times significantly. Ultras involve walking, nutrition and sleep that the formula does not model.

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